Retirement Longevity Calculator
Calculate how many years your retirement savings will last based on your withdrawal rate, investment returns, and inflation.
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Planning for Retirement Longevity
The biggest risk in retirement is outliving your savings. This calculator models how long your nest egg will last given your withdrawal rate, investment returns, and inflation. Inflation is critical — a $4,000/month withdrawal today needs to be ~$5,400 in 10 years at 3% inflation to maintain the same purchasing power.
The 4% Rule
The 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjusting for inflation each year. Historically, this strategy has a high success rate for 30-year retirements. However, many financial planners now suggest 3.5% for greater safety.
Sequence of Returns Risk
Poor investment returns in the first few years of retirement can dramatically reduce how long your savings last, even if average returns are good. This is called "sequence of returns risk" and is why many retirees keep 2-3 years of expenses in cash.
Factors That Determine How Long Your Savings Last
Withdrawal rate: The percentage of your portfolio you withdraw annually. The traditional 4% rule was designed for 30-year retirements, but many planners now recommend 3.5% or less for early retirees or longer time horizons.
Investment returns in retirement: Most retirees shift to a more conservative allocation (60/40 stocks/bonds or even 50/50). Expected returns of 4-6% are reasonable for a balanced portfolio, but returns aren't guaranteed.
Inflation: At 3% inflation, your purchasing power halves in 24 years. A retiree needing $4,000/month at 65 will need about $7,200/month at 85 to maintain the same lifestyle. Always plan with inflation-adjusted withdrawals.
Sequence of returns risk: If the market drops 30% in your first year of retirement, your savings take a massive hit that's hard to recover from — even if average returns over the full period are normal. This is why keeping 2-3 years of expenses in cash or short-term bonds is critical.
Strategies to Make Savings Last Longer
Guardrails approach: Reduce withdrawals by 10% when your portfolio drops below a threshold, and increase by 10% when it rises above another threshold. This dynamic approach can extend portfolio longevity by 5-10 years compared to rigid withdrawals.
Part-time income: Even modest income ($1,000-2,000/month) in early retirement dramatically reduces portfolio drawdown and extends longevity. Consider consulting, teaching, or freelancing — use our Freelance Rate Calculator.
Delay Social Security: Waiting from age 62 to 70 increases your benefit by roughly 76%. Each year you delay adds approximately 8% to your annual benefit — a guaranteed return that's hard to beat elsewhere.