Retirement Longevity Calculator
Calculate how many years your retirement savings will last based on your withdrawal rate, investment returns, and inflation.
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This calculator is for informational and educational purposes only. Results are estimates based on the information you provide and standard financial formulas. This is not financial advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor for decisions specific to your situation. Full Disclaimer
Advanced Longevity Analysis SSA DATA
⌄Personalized longevity analysis appears after you Calculate
Life Expectancy by Age and Gender — SSA 2022 Period Life Table
Numbers below come from the Social Security Administration's 2022 Period Life Table, used in the 2025 Trustees Report. These are average remaining years of life at each age, by gender. The "average" is misleading on the upside: half of people will outlive the median, sometimes by 10-15+ years.
| Current Age | Male — Avg Remaining | Female — Avg Remaining | Median Death Age (Female) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 27.85 yrs | 31.75 yrs | ~82 |
| 55 | 23.74 yrs | 27.43 yrs | ~82 |
| 60 | 19.84 yrs | 23.30 yrs | ~83 |
| 65 | 17.00 yrs | 19.70 yrs | ~85 |
| 70 | 12.75 yrs | 15.35 yrs | ~85 |
| 75 | 9.83 yrs | 11.97 yrs | ~87 |
| 80 | 7.31 yrs | 8.95 yrs | ~89 |
| 85 | 5.51 yrs | 6.69 yrs | ~92 |
Source: SSA Office of the Chief Actuary — 2022 Period Life Table (used in 2025 Trustees Report). Period tables use mortality rates from a single year, applied across the remaining lifetime. For people already 65, cohort tables (which incorporate projected mortality improvements) typically show 1-2 years longer than period tables. Annuity Mortality Tables (Society of Actuaries 2012) — used by insurance companies for pricing — show ~1.5 years longer than SSA tables because they reflect a healthier-than-average population that buys annuities.
Joint Life — How Long Will At Least One Spouse Live?
For couples, the relevant question isn't "How long will I live?" but "How long until both of us are gone?" This is the joint last-survivor calculation, and it produces dramatically longer planning horizons than individual life expectancy. Math: P(at least one alive at age X) = 1 − P(both dead by age X).
| Age Reached | Probability — Single Female (65) | Probability — Single Male (65) | Probability — At Least One Spouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | ~75% | ~65% | ~92% |
| 85 | ~58% | ~45% | ~78% |
| 90 | ~37% | ~24% | ~52% |
| 95 | ~17% | ~9% | ~24% |
| 100 | ~5% | ~2% | ~7% |
What this means for portfolio sizing
- Couples should plan to age 95 (30-year horizon from 65) at minimum — this captures the 75th percentile of joint longevity.
- Singles plan to age 90 (25-year horizon from 65) for the 75th percentile.
- Survivor planning matters: the surviving spouse loses one Social Security benefit (the smaller of the two) and faces single-filer tax brackets. A 30% income drop at age 88 with potentially 10 more years to live.
- Joint-life annuity quotes for couples 65/65 currently price at roughly $5.20-$5.80/month per $1,000 of premium for 100% to survivor — significantly cheaper than single-life pricing because mortality risk pools across two lives.
Joint-life probabilities computed from SSA 2022 Period Life Table assuming mortality independence (a simplification — research shows correlated mortality reduces joint expectancy by ~6 months for cohabiting spouses; see Hurd & McGarry 2002). Annuity rates: ImmediateAnnuities.com / Society of Actuaries 2012 IAM Table.
Two Different Risks — Which Is Bigger For You?
Most retirees focus on portfolio depletion risk (will my money last?) but research by Pfau, Kitces, and Milevsky shows that for many retirees longevity risk (will I outlive my plan?) is the larger threat. The two interact in non-obvious ways.
Longevity Risk ~24%
Definition: The risk you live longer than your plan assumes.
Probability: If you plan to age 90 (typical financial-planning default), there's still a ~24% chance one spouse reaches 95 — adding 5 years your plan didn't fund.
Mitigation cost: Add 5 years of expenses to portfolio target = ~$200K-$250K additional savings needed. OR delay SS to 70 (largest risk-free longevity hedge).
Sequence Risk ~9-22%
Definition: The risk early-retirement bear markets permanently damage portfolio.
Probability: 9% historical failure rate at 4% withdrawal over 30 years (Damodaran 1928-2025); rises to 22% at 5.5% withdrawal.
Mitigation cost: Hold 2-3 years of expenses in cash (lost stock returns ~$30K opportunity cost) OR use Guardrails strategy (cuts spending 10% in down years).
Combined Risk ~30%
Definition: Either failure mode, treated as approximate union of probabilities.
Implication: About 1-in-3 traditional retirement plans fail one of these two ways absent active mitigation. Most planning calculators ignore one or the other.
Mitigation cost: Combination approach — delay SS to 70 + Guardrails strategy + 25% allocation to TIPS or annuities — reduces combined failure to ~7%.
Pfau, W. (2018). How Much Can I Spend in Retirement? Retirement Researcher Media. Milevsky, M. (2020). Retirement Income Recipes in R: From Ruin Probabilities to Intelligent Drawdowns. Kitces, M. kitces.com retirement research archive.
Inflation Erosion — What $4,000/Month Buys at Age 95
Long retirements expose retirees to compounding inflation. At today's CPI of 3.3%, prices roughly double every 22 years. A 65-year-old who lives to 95 will see their cost of living more than double over their retirement.
| Years From Retirement | Age | $4,000 Today Buys (3% inflation) | $4,000 Today Buys (4% inflation) | $4,000 Today Buys (5% inflation) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 65 | $4,000 | $4,000 | $4,000 |
| 10 | 75 | $2,977 | $2,702 | $2,455 |
| 20 | 85 | $2,215 | $1,825 | $1,508 |
| 30 | 95 | $1,648 | $1,233 | $926 |
| 35 | 100 | $1,422 | $1,014 | $725 |
Inflation hedges built into retirement portfolios
- Social Security — automatic COLA each year (2.8% for 2026). The single most powerful hedge most retirees have.
- TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) — principal adjusts with CPI. Currently yielding ~2.0% real on the 10-year. Hold to maturity for guaranteed real return.
- I Bonds — variable rate adjusts every 6 months with inflation. $10K/year purchase limit per person.
- Equities — historical 7% real return (S&P 500 1928-2025 was 11.86% nominal vs 3% inflation = 8.6% real). Best long-term inflation hedge.
- Real estate — rents and home prices generally track inflation +1-2%. REITs offer liquid exposure.
Inflation projections use CPI compounded annually. Historical US inflation 1928-2025 averaged 3.0%/year (Damodaran). Recent years: 2021 = 7.0%, 2022 = 6.5%, 2023 = 3.4%, 2024 = 2.9%, 2025 = ~3.0%. Current CPI from FRED CPIAUCSL.
Long-Term Care — The Risk Most Plans Ignore
Approximately 70% of Americans turning 65 today will need some form of long-term care during retirement (HHS Administration for Community Living). Costs have outpaced general inflation for two decades. This is the single largest unfunded retirement risk.
| Care Level | 2025 National Median (Annual) | Projected 2035 (4% inflation) | Projected 2045 (4% inflation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Health Aide (44 hrs/wk) | $77,792 | $115,148 | $170,481 |
| Adult Day Health Care | $26,000 | $38,488 | $56,978 |
| Assisted Living Facility | $70,800 | $104,793 | $155,153 |
| Nursing Home — Semi-Private | $111,325 | $164,773 | $243,985 |
| Nursing Home — Private Room | $127,750 | $189,084 | $279,931 |
Average Care Duration 3 yrs
Median LTC need lasts approximately 3 years. About 14% need care for 5+ years. Women average longer care durations than men due to longer life expectancy.
Total Lifetime Cost $235K
Average lifetime LTC cost per person: $235,000 (2025 dollars). For nursing home care: $300K-$700K. Medicare covers only first 100 days of skilled nursing under specific conditions.
LTC Insurance Premium $3-7K
Annual LTC insurance premium for 60-year-old couple: $3,000-$7,000. Hybrid life/LTC policies: $10K-$15K annual premium for $200K-$400K in benefits.
- Self-insure — Set aside $250K-$400K in reserves. Works for higher-net-worth households.
- Traditional LTC insurance — Use-it-or-lose-it premiums. Increasingly rare; most major insurers exited the market.
- Hybrid life/LTC — Permanent life insurance with LTC rider. Death benefit if not used; LTC benefit if needed. More popular than traditional LTC.
Cost data: Genworth Cost of Care Survey 2024 (latest available; annual update). Care need probability: HHS Administration for Community Living. LTC inflation has run 4-5%/year over the past 20 years, well above general CPI.
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Things to Know
Essential concepts for understanding your results
Planning HorizonHow long should your retirement savings last?
Plan for 30-35 years minimum from retirement age. A 65-year-old today has a 50% chance of living to 85 and a 25% chance of reaching 92. For couples, the chance of at least one partner reaching 92 exceeds 40%. Running out of money at 88 with 5+ years of life remaining is catastrophic. Use age 95 as your planning horizon — it is better to leave a small inheritance than to exhaust savings while still alive.
Longevity RiskWhat is longevity risk and how do you manage it?
Longevity risk is the danger of outliving your savings. Mitigation strategies: delay Social Security to 70 for maximum guaranteed lifetime income, use a 3.5% withdrawal rate instead of 4%, maintain 40-50% stocks in your portfolio for continued growth, consider a partial annuity to create additional guaranteed income, and maintain flexibility to reduce spending during market downturns. Dynamic withdrawal strategies reduce longevity risk to under 2%.
Healthcare PlanningHow do healthcare costs compound over a long retirement?
Fidelity estimates a 65-year-old couple needs $315,000 for healthcare in retirement — and this assumes average longevity. For those living to 95, healthcare costs can reach $450,000-500,000. Long-term care (nursing home: $8,000-12,000/month, home aide: $5,000-6,000/month) is the biggest tail risk. Long-term care insurance, a Health Savings Account, and self-insuring through additional savings are the three main hedging strategies.
Inflation Over DecadesHow does inflation affect a 30-year retirement?
At 3% annual inflation, $5,000/month in purchasing power today requires $12,140/month in 30 years. Your portfolio must generate increasing income every year just to maintain the same lifestyle. This is why retirees must keep 40-60% of their portfolio in stocks — bonds alone cannot keep pace with inflation over decades. The 4% rule accounts for inflation by increasing withdrawals annually, but a 100% bond portfolio would fail under this approach.
Planning for Retirement Longevity
The biggest risk in retirement is outliving your savings. This calculator models how long your nest egg will last given your withdrawal rate, investment returns, and inflation. Inflation is critical — a $4,000/month withdrawal today needs to be ~$5,400 in 10 years at 3% inflation to maintain the same purchasing power.
The 4% Rule
The 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjusting for inflation each year. Historically, this strategy has a high success rate for 30-year retirements. However, many financial planners now suggest 3.5% for greater safety.
Sequence of Returns Risk
Poor investment returns in the first few years of retirement can dramatically reduce how long your savings last, even if average returns are good. This is called "sequence of returns risk" and is why many retirees keep 2-3 years of expenses in cash.
Factors That Determine How Long Your Savings Last
Withdrawal rate: The percentage of your portfolio you withdraw annually. The traditional 4% rule was designed for 30-year retirements, but many planners now recommend 3.5% or less for early retirees or longer time horizons.
Investment returns in retirement: Most retirees shift to a more conservative allocation (60/40 stocks/bonds or even 50/50). Expected returns of 4-6% are reasonable for a balanced portfolio, but returns aren't guaranteed.
Inflation: At 3% inflation, your purchasing power halves in 24 years. A retiree needing $4,000/month at 65 will need about $7,200/month at 85 to maintain the same lifestyle. Always plan with inflation-adjusted withdrawals.
Sequence of returns risk: If the market drops 30% in your first year of retirement, your savings take a massive hit that's hard to recover from — even if average returns over the full period are normal. This is why keeping 2-3 years of expenses in cash or short-term bonds is critical.
Strategies to Make Savings Last Longer
Guardrails approach: Reduce withdrawals by 10% when your portfolio drops below a threshold, and increase by 10% when it rises above another threshold. This dynamic approach can extend portfolio longevity by 5-10 years compared to rigid withdrawals.
Part-time income: Even modest income ($1,000-2,000/month) in early retirement dramatically reduces portfolio drawdown and extends longevity. Consider consulting, teaching, or freelancing — use our Freelance Rate Calculator.
Delay Social Security: Waiting from age 62 to 70 increases your benefit by roughly 76%. Each year you delay adds approximately 8% to your annual benefit — a guaranteed return that's hard to beat elsewhere.